Randal O'Toole has proposed a thought experiment that he uses to "debunk the smart growth myth" of the ideal walkable neighborhood grocery store.
"For smart growth to work, then population densities must be high enough for businesses to have enough customers within walking distance to keep them going. Smart growth won't work if businesses in pedestrian-friendly neighborhoods must attract hordes of auto drivers from other areas in order to survive. A modern large supermarket needs to draw patrons from a community of about 40,000 people. This is known as the trade population for this kind of store.Therefore, smart growth won't work. QED.
Joel Garreau says that, as a rule of thumb, 'the farthest distance an American will willingly walk before getting into a car' is 600 feet. However, 'if you do everything you can to make casual use of the automobile inconvenient at the same time that you make walking pleasant and attractive, you maybe, just maybe, can up the distance an American will willingly walk to 1,500 feet'...
The population density required to place 40,000 people within 1,500 feet of a grocery store is almost 124,000 people per square mile. That's about two-and-one-half times the density of Manhattan."
O'Toole has asked a worthwhile question but plugged in the wrong numbers to answer it. Out of curiosity, I'd like to take a closer look at this hypothetical scenario to see how feasible the walkable grocery may really be.
- medium-sized full-service grocers
- about a half dozen health food stores
- specialty ethnic food stores
- big box stores like Target that sell food
- dozens of small convenience stores
Taking the combined service area's population to be 134,086 from current ACS data (Charlottesville and Albemarle County), this breaks down to about one large grocery store per 9500 people. APA has determined the average customer base for a supermarket in the U.S. to be 8,412 , but I’ll just stick with my more conservative 9500.
Modal Split. O'Toole, as usual, characterizes the smart growth position as something far more extreme than anyone would actually propose: a 100% walking grocery store, as if bicycles, transit, and automobiles do not exist at all. The term walkable means able to be walked to, not only walked to. Every smart growth proponent I know would actually hope to see a multimodal balance to allow an array of transportation options. For the sake of this scenario, let's suppose our store has 50% walkers (with some cyclists included in here), 25% transit users, and 25% drivers.
Walking Distance. If you ignore Garreau's snarkiness, the 1,500 foot number is an alright estimate for typical behavior in a pedestrian-friendly environment. Walking 600 feet will seem intolerable if it's between the Best Buy and the Bed, Bath, and Beyond through a parking lot and grass berm, but Charlottesville's downtown pedestrian mall is 2,100 feet long and people will regularly walk its length for an errand because it is so enjoyable. A more objective way to go about this would be to fix the travel time. Apparently, the average drive to the grocery store currently takes about 20 minutes, including the walk from the parking lot. At a leisurely pace, the average walker could traverse about 3,000 feet in 20 minutes. I'll stick with the 1,500 foot number, noting that this will cut the travel time in half even for the furthest walkers.
Needed Density. Considering all of these conditions, a back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that this grocer could be supported with a population density of 18,885 people per square mile surrounding it. This is about half the density of Brooklyn. If this still seems unreasonably high, it should be noted that this is only the density for one quarter of a square mile area. In theory, it could be surrounded by a greenbelt of parkland and have no effect on the calculation.
Charlottesville's new Market Street Market serves a walkable neighborhood |
There’s no reason why a medium-scaled grocer could not carry almost anything the average household would want on a much smaller footprint. And rather than singling out a one-size-fits-all shopping location, whether you're preparing Thanksgiving dinner or picking up milk, it's easy to imagine a full spectrum of grocery stores organized between convenience and selection. Walk to the neighborhood store twice a week; take a longer trip to Costco every two months.
418 comments:
1 – 200 of 418 Newer› Newest»Great post.
I'm now inspired to do some of my own back of the envelope calculations about the feasibility of grocery store locations in various neighborhoods in my town, Athens, Ga.
Here's a wishful post I did a while ago about a small format but full-service coming to my neighborhood: http://www.myathensblog.com/2009/06/green-thrift-grocery-to-open-in-athens.html
Nice. Great, logical debunking of another urban myth. How did we get along without big box type stores for all those centuries?
In my old neighborhood of Santa Monica, we could walk to two small Whole Foods Markets, a smallish-but-still-full-service chain grocery store, a large chain grocery store, and numerous boutique artisanal shops—all of which drew the bulk of their customer base from the surrounding neighborhoods. The overall population density in Santa Monica is only around 10k/sq.mi., and the neighborhoods I'm talking about are some of the city's least dense, with mostly single family houses and small (4-6 unit) apartment buildings.
Dan, I had never heard of the chain you mention in your post. What a great idea. Food is so central to the life of a neighborhood, and I think its just starting to get the attention it deserves.
Josh, your experience matches my own. Lots of smaller stores manage to do fine. We walk to a market with a butcher, baker, and local foods vendor in about 5 minutes, but it is high-end so we can't do all of our shopping there. Another medium-sized store is within a 5 minute bike - great prices for standard food. A new store has just opened to serve a walkable neighborhood in Charlottesville. As far as I can tell it has no parking actually, just fit within the existing building frontages. Prices are reasonable and selection is fine enough for basic needs. This is certainly being done here.
I've just added a picture of the market I forgot to post earlier.
Daniel,
I've been reading your blog since we share urbanism interests - but this post hit home (since my husband & I run a neighborhood specialty grocery).
We have a small selection and an even smaller neighborhood, but, the appeal to walk to the corner for an item has served us well. We're in the same location as a grocery that existed in our historic neighborhood in 1881 - we like to think the walkable, local food trend is coming back after 120+ years.
Next time you are on this side of the mountain, please drop in - we're in Staunton (George Bowers Grocery).
Katie,
Thanks for leaving a comment. I love Staunton. Catherine Redfearn and I worked on pedestrian and bicycle components of a Green Infrastructure Plan last fall for the city, Amy Arnold in particular. I go a chance to visit about a half dozen times and explored all over the downtown and surrounding areas. I will stop in for a bite to eat if I'm back over there at some point.
Daniel, I found this very enjoyable (as did my co-workers, who I shared it with), and appreciate you taking the time to follow through on the numbers.
Yes, the 40,000 figure is way out. I'm sure we all know of large grocery stores located in or on the outskirts of towns of 5,000-10,000 people with the next settlement of a similar size 30-70 miles away. So O'Toole's thought experiment fails big time.
In downtown Milwaukee (East Town) we actually have two full service grocery stores withing two blocks of each other.
The Safeway in the Pearl district in Portland and various Trader Joes, Whole Foods, and local convinient stores in Portland all seemed to be doing fine with very little auto customers.
Nicely done. I've never seen an Randal O'Tool(e) argument or analysis supposedly debunking smart growth or favoring the automobile that didn't crumble under more rigorous vetting.
It's frustrating to be repeatedly confronted with a rhetorical opponent who lacks even a basic shred of intellectual honesty. I'm convinced he knows he's cooking the books, and he doesn't care.
Residents within walking distance of grocery stores don't need big kitchens. They only need to store what they carry, not what they stuff into the car. Car based trips buy in quantity to reduce the number of trips, but need lots of storage space in the kitchen to store the foodstuffs.
What a great post. This guy O'Toole invented an interesting experiment which sounds awesome. In fact a few days back I was taking with a friend of mine about this guy who likes to visit
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It has a number of 3,500 locations in 43 states. Compared with the other fast-food industry, Sonic breakfast menu prices tend to be normal to slightly above average.
Sonic Drive-In has always been a fast-food restaurant with a gimmick. For example, it has regularly used carhops, and at some locations, the customer’s food would be carried out by a server on rollerskates.
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Sonic Drive-In is the type of traditional fast food restaurant in the United States. They promote themselves as “America’s drive-in”, and it surely is fame they deserve.
It has a number of 3,500 locations in 43 states. Compared with the other fast-food industry, Sonic breakfast menu prices tend to be normal to slightly above average.
Sonic Drive-In has always been a fast-food restaurant with a gimmick. For example, it has regularly used carhops, and at some locations, the customer’s food would be carried out by a server on rollerskates.
The Sonic Drive-In restaurant provides different kinds of foods, from burgers and chicken sandwiches to unique sides and frozen treats.
The sonic traditional fast-food menu includes hot dogs, milkshakes, corn dogs, hamburgers, soft drinks, and desserts.
In addition, their super fast, super friendly service, or “service with the speed of sound”, has confirmed their place as a family favorite across the country
Sonic breakfast menu
Sonic Drive-In is the type of traditional fast food restaurant in the United States. They promote themselves as “America’s drive-in”, and it surely is fame they deserve.
It has a number of 3,500 locations in 43 states. Compared with the other fast-food industry, Sonic breakfast menu prices tend to be normal to slightly above average.
Sonic Drive-In has always been a fast-food restaurant with a gimmick. For example, it has regularly used carhops, and at some locations, the customer’s food would be carried out by a server on rollerskates.
The Sonic Drive-In restaurant provides different kinds of foods, from burgers and chicken sandwiches to unique sides and frozen treats.
The sonic traditional fast-food menu includes hot dogs, milkshakes, corn dogs, hamburgers, soft drinks, and desserts.
In addition, their super fast, super friendly service, or “service with the speed of sound”, has confirmed their place as a family favorite across the country
Sonic Holiday Hours – Sonic Corp., established as Sonic Drive-In and more usually known as Sonic. Its has a number of 3,530 Sonic restaurants are located in 46 U.S. states As of 2022.
It was founded on June 18, 1953 by Troy Smith and Headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, U.S.
Sonic Drive-In is an American drive-in fast-food restaurant chain controlled by Inspire Brands, Buffalo Wild Wings and Arby’s parent company.
Although sonic Drive-In is recognised for its use of carhops on roller skates, the company yearly hosts a competition (in most locations) to determine the top skating carhop in its system.
Sonic Holiday Hours
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